New Datafolha election poll - David Fleischer
BrazilFocus– David Fleischer
Phone/FAX:55-61-3327-8085
Cell:99218-2771 e-mail: Fleischer@uol.com.br
SpecialReportJune 11 2018
New Datafolha election poll
This poll was conducted on 6-7 June among 2,824 voters in 174municípios with a 2-point margin of error. The last Datafolhapoll was conducted on 11-13 April
Simulations With Lula-- JanuaryèAprilèJune
With Lula_____ Rejection__
Candidate Party Jan. April June AprilèJune
Lula PT 37% 31% 30% 40% è36%
Bolsonaro PSL 10% 15% 17% 29% è32%
Marina Rede 10% 10% 10% 23% è24%
J. Barbosa PSB 3% 8% - - 14%
Alckmin PSDB 7% 6% 6% 26%è27%
C. Gomes PDT 7% 5% 6% 21% è23%
A. Dias Pode 4% 3% 4% 13%
M. D’Ávila PCdoB 1% 2% 2% 13%
Collor PTC 2% 1% 1% 44% è39%
R. Maia DEM - - 1% 2% 21%
Meirelles MDB 1% 1% 1% 12%
F. Rocha PRB - - 1% 1%
No Candidate 21%
Other 2% 0%
Blank/Null 13%
DK/NR 3%
Since January, Lula declined 7 points è30% but still leads the field while his rejection reclined by 4 points. In six months, Bolsonaro gained 7 points è17% and his rejection was up +3. Marina’s rejection remained steady as did her 10% preference. Alckminhad the same profile with rejection steady and his preference unchanged at 6%.
Simulations WithoutLula – April èJune
No PT
Candidate Party April June June June
Haddad PT - - 1% - - - -
J. Wagner PT 2% - - 1% - -
Bolsonaro PSL 17% 19% 19% 19%
Marina Rede 15% 15% 14% 15%
J. Barbosa PSB 9% - - - - - -
C. Gomes PDT 9% 10% 10% 11%
Alckmin PSDB 7% 7% 7% 7%
A. Dias Pode 5% 4% 4% 4%
Other 8% 11% 12% 10%
No Candidate 28% 33% 33% 34%
In June (without Lula and Joaquim Barbosa), the Undecided increased from 28% to 33%, while Bolsonaro picked up 2 points, Ciro Gomes (one point) and Others (3 points). The two other PT alternate candidates had 1% each. Finally, with no PT candidate, Marina Silva and Ciro Gomes each picked up one point.
Second Round Runoff Simulations (April èJune)
Lula 49%è49% 47%è46% 48%è49%
Alckmin 30%è27% 34%è31% 35%è33% 27%
Marina 32%è31% 42%è42% 42% 41%
Bolsonaro 32%è32% 32%è33% 33%è33% 34%
C. Gomes 32%è32% 39% 36%
In this AprilèJune comparison, Lula would continue to defeat Alckmin, Marina and Bolsonaro by about the same margins. However,in June, Marina Silva would defeat Alckmin (by 15 points), Bolsonaro (by 9) and Ciro Gomes (by 2 points). Ciro Gomes would defeat Alckmin (by one point), Bolsonaro (by two points) but lose to Marina (by two points). Geraldo Alckmin would tie with Bolsonaro, but would lose to Marina (by 15 points) and to Ciro (by one point).
So far èNo “strong” center candidate has appeared, but if the election were held in June (without Lula), Marina Silva (Rede) would defeat the other three candidates on the second round. However, the situation in October might be quite different – because these 2ndround simulations (without Lula) have between 25% and 40% undecided (in June).
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