New Datafolha election poll - David Fleischer

BrazilFocus– David Fleischer
Phone/FAX:55-61-3327-8085
Cell:99218-2771 e-mail: Fleischer@uol.com.br
SpecialReportJune 11 2018  

New Datafolha election poll


            This poll was conducted on 6-7 June among 2,824 voters in 174municípios with a 2-point margin of error. The last Datafolhapoll was conducted on 11-13 April

Simulations With Lula-- JanuaryèAprilèJune

                                                  With Lula_____                        Rejection__
Candidate          Party       Jan.     April     June                AprilèJune

Lula                  PT          37%     31%    30%                       40% è36%
Bolsonaro       PSL        10%     15%    17%                        29% è32%
Marina             Rede     10%     10%     10%                       23% è24%      
J. Barbosa      PSB         3%        8%       - -                         14%  
Alckmin         PSDB      7%       6%       6%                        26%è27%     
C. Gomes       PDT         7%      5%        6%                      21% è23%
A. Dias           Pode        4%       3%       4%                        13%
M. D’Ávila     PCdoB    1%        2%       2%                       13%
Collor            PTC        2%       1%       1%                       44% è39%
R. Maia          DEM      - -          1%       2%                       21%
Meirelles       MDB       1%       1%       1%                       12%
F. Rocha         PRB       - -           1%       1%
No Candidate                                          21%      
Other                             2%       0%              
Blank/Null                                13%              
DK/NR                                        3%              

            Since January, Lula declined 7 points è30% but still leads the field while his rejection reclined by 4 points.  In six months, Bolsonaro gained 7 points è17% and his rejection was up +3.  Marina’s rejection remained steady as did her 10% preference.  Alckminhad the same profile with rejection steady and his preference unchanged at 6%.


Simulations WithoutLula – April èJune 

                                                                                                                        No PT
Candidate                  Party               April               June              June               June

Haddad           PT                    -  -                    1%                 -  -                  -  -
J. Wagner        PT                   2%                 -  -                   1%                 -  -              
Bolsonaro       PSL                17%                19%                 19%                 19%
Marina           Rede               15%                 15%                 14%                 15%
J. Barbosa      PSB                               9%                 -  -                  -  -                  - -
C. Gomes      PDT                  9%                10%                 10%                 11%
Alckmin         PSDB                 7%                  7%                   7%                   7%
A. Dias                       Pode                  5%                   4%                   4%                   4%
Other                                      8%                11%                 12%                 10%
No Candidate                                    28%                 33%                 33%                 34%   

            In June (without Lula and Joaquim Barbosa), the Undecided increased from 28% to 33%, while Bolsonaro picked up 2 points, Ciro Gomes (one point) and Others (3 points).  The two other PT alternate candidates had 1% each.  Finally, with no PT candidate, Marina Silva and Ciro Gomes each picked up one point.

Second Round Runoff Simulations (April èJune)   


Lula          49%è49%   47%è46%   48%è49% 
Alckmin   30%è27%                                           34%è31%                       35%è33%   27%              
Marina                        32%è31%                                          42%è42%                       42%  41%     
Bolsonaro                                         32%è32%                      32%è33%   33%è33%                        34%
C. Gomes                                                              32%è32%                                                    39%  36%

            In this AprilèJune comparison, Lula would continue to defeat Alckmin, Marina and Bolsonaro by about the same margins.  However,in June, Marina Silva would defeat Alckmin (by 15 points), Bolsonaro (by 9) and Ciro Gomes (by 2 points).  Ciro Gomes would defeat Alckmin (by one point), Bolsonaro (by two points) but lose to Marina (by two points).  Geraldo Alckmin would tie with Bolsonaro, but would lose to Marina (by 15 points) and to Ciro (by one point).  


            So far èNo “strong” center candidate has appeared, but if the election were held in June (without Lula), Marina Silva (Rede) would defeat the other three candidates on the second round.  However, the situation in October might be quite different – because these 2ndround simulations (without Lula) have between 25% and 40% undecided (in June).     

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